By Marca Hagenstad

Last fall in Innsbruck, Austria I presented the results of research I conducted with Protect Our Winters (POW) on the economics of snow sports at the International Snow Science Workshop. There, I met a French snow scientist who asked me to join his team as a contributing author on a chapter on High Mountain Areas in IPCC’s next research effort. The IPCC Special Report on Oceans and the Cryosphere came out this September, and I wanted to highlight some of its main findings. While I am a social scientist, specializing in circular economies, I’ve attempted to summarize the climate science as well, to help ensure the information is absorbed by a larger audience.

Our engagement with new climate change information depends on how it coheres with our existing perception of how the world works. I want to acknowledge this and distill the report down into digestible chunks that various communities can relate to. For the AAC, distributing information on the alpine environment makes sense. We are all aware of the changes we have seen in the mountains–from rain in winter to shrinking glaciers. The report investigates how these collective changes are impacting our global environment. 

Impacts on the farthest corners of the Earth

 This is the first IPCC report to examine climate change impacts to the farthest corners of the Earth, from the highest alpine regions to the deepest oceans. The frozen part of the Earth is called the cryosphere, and includes ice, snow, glaciers, and permafrost. It is widespread in polar regions and high mountains. Frozen regions are thawing and impacts are far-reaching. Land and sea ice are melting at accelerating rates. There is rapid surface melt of glaciers and decline in snow cover, especially at lower elevations. Permafrost is melting, with temperatures increasing to record high levels.

 Shrinking glaciers and snow cover have many impacts to recreation. They pose challenges to winter recreationists and to ski resorts, forcing some resorts out of business and increasing financial risks, especially for lower-elevation resorts. Many resorts are responding by increasing snow-making capabilities, which may be effective for a while, but may not be feasible in the long term as temperatures exceed minimum temperatures needed for snowmaking. By 2050, only 10 to 13 out of 21 prior Olympic Winter Games locations are projected to have adequate snow reliability, depending on the emissions scenario. Cryosphere decline has also reduced opportunities for ice climbing.

In summer, cryosphere changes are impacting glacier-related activities such as hiking, skiing, climbing, and mountaineering. Hiker and climber safety is being compromised along established trails and common access routes. In response, several routes have been relocated and some ladders and fixed anchors have been installed. New opportunities are presented in some locations where visitors are attracted by ‘last chance’ opportunities to view a glacier or to view the loss of a glacier. Trekking in the Himalaya has been negatively affected and the reduced water availability affects the ability of hotels and campsites to serve visitors. 

 Permafrost holds double the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere. As it thaws, enormous quantities of carbon and methane are released – we’re talking 10s to 100s of billions of tonnes of CO2 - which further contribute to global warming. Contaminants are also released, affecting water quality. Permafrost thaw is also affecting recreationists: rock falls on and off glaciers are increasingly observed, threatening the safety of hikers and mountaineers, especially in Switzerland and New Zealand. Permafrost thaw, along with glacier retreat, have induced major changes to iconic mountaineering routes in the Mont-Blanc area including reduced route safety and shift in the climbing season. 

The report concludes that the speed and intensity of the future impacts from ocean and cryosphere change depend critically on the quantities of greenhouse gas emissions we choose to continue to release. So, it is a positive that we actually have control over how severe the impacts of climate change will get. We will continue to experience significant changes, but impacts will be much less severe if emissions are significantly reduced. Reducing other pressures such as pollution and overfishing, and increasing habitat and wetland restoration can also ease impacts. Improving education and using scientific knowledge alongside local and Indigenous knowledge can support the development of solutions that help communities adapt to changes and respond to challenges ahead.

Marca Hagenstad is an economist with Circle Economics and a contributing author to the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on the cryosphere. She also tests splitboards for Backcountry Magazine and teaches snow science with Winter Wildlands Alliance.